The month of September was again swingy, and first it looked promising until I basically lost all winnings again. At one point, I was about 400$ up, only to find myself hitting rock bottom. I am not quite sure, if this is only due to variance or if I changed anything in my play style, but currently, I seem to not be able to run deep.
And I guess that´s part of the poker experience: sometimes you feel invincible, you hit all your draws, your top pairs hold up, and you successfully steal blinds, win tournaments. In other times, you lose to two outers as 98% favourite, your aces get cracked, you make obvious mistakes, and your last tournament win was dozens of events ago.
This is me at the moment. One of the few things kind of balance this out, is the weekly 50$ sit and crush bonus – but as of now, I am doubting, whether hunting down this bonus might be -EV for me.
On the other hand, the weekly bonus is exactly the reason, why my bankroll is about 250$ higher than compared to the beginning of last month – so, maybe I should just keep on going and accumulate to 3000$ while staying “break even” at the tables?
Sounds a little bit boring to me but if this is my current “winning formula”, then it is what it is.
The data shows that 3.30, 6.60, 11 and 16.5$ on demand is pretty consistent with about 0.77$ – 1.14$ profit per hour per table, so this should be my “bread and butter”. I should still avoid 22$ tables and higher. The 11$ SAT tournaments have been better lately, but overall a big loss.
So, for the month of October and pretty much the rest of the year, I will try to stabilize further and keep on grinding to cash in the weekly bonus. In theory, staying at about ABI 4-6 should help me grow my bankroll steadily. It is not really sexy but better than losing more money.